Prepreke unapređenju spremnosti za reagovanje u prirodnim katastrofama - Barriers to improvement preparedness for responding to natural disasters

U radu koji predstavlja kvantitativno istraživanje izneti su rezultati ispitivanja koji se odnose na prepreke unapređenju mera spremnosti za reagovanje u prirodnim katastrofama. Istraživanje je sprovedeno u toku 2015. godine u 19 lokalnih zajednica u Srbiji. Tom prilikom, primenom strategije ispitivanja u domaćinstvima i višeetapnim slučajnim uzorkovanjem, anketirano je 2500 građana. Rezultati istraživanja pokazuju da 20,5% ispitanika misli da će im interventno-spasilačke službe pomoći, pa im mere spremnosti za reagovanje nisuni potrebne; 31,7% ispitanika ne smatra da su ugroženi ili da je njihovo domaćinstvo ugroženo od posledica katastrofa; 20,9% ispitanika ističe da nema vremena za to; 23,1% ispitanika misli da je preduzimanje tih mera veoma skupo; 19,4% smatra da nije sposobno za tako nešto; 22,8% ističe da nema podršku lokalne zajednice; 27% ističe da ne mogu sprečiti posledice prirodnih katastrofa ni na koji način. Rezultati inferencijalne statistike uticaja pola, roditeljstva, zaposlenosti, invaliditeta, prethodnog iskustva i vojne obaveze pokazuju raznovrsne rezultate u pogledu njihove statističke povezanosti sa preprekama koje se odnose na spremnost za reagovanje.. Značaj sprovedenog istraživanja ogleda se u unapređenju teorijskog i empirijskog fonda znanja o faktorima koji utiču na nizak nivo spremnosti građana za reagovanje u prirodnim katastrofama. Rezultati istraživanja mogu biti iskorišćeni kao polazna osnova u koncipiranju modela unapređenja spremnosti građana za reagovanje u prirodnim katastrofama. Ključne reči: bezbednost, prirodne katastrofe, barijere, reagovanje, pol, roditeljstvo, zaposlenost, invaliditet, prethodno iskustvo, vojna obaveza. This paper presents the quantitative research results of the barrier improvement measures of preparedness to respond to natural disasters. The survey was conducted in 2015 in 19 local communities in Serbia. On that occasion, using a testing strategy for households and multistage random sampling of 2,500 persons were interviewed. Survey results show that 20.5% of respondents thought that his first responders already help him, such measures are not necessary; 31.7% of respondents thinks that himself or his household is not vulnerable from the consequences; 20.9% of respondents said that there is no time for that; 23.1% of respondents think that it is taking these measures very expensive; 19.4% think that it is not capable of such a thing; 22.8% declare that there is no support from the local community; 27% points out that it can not prevent the effects do not in any way. The results of inferential statistics, the influence of sex, parenting, employment, disability, previous experience and military obligations variety show results in terms of their statistical association with barriers readiness. The significance of the research is reflected in the improvement of theoretical and empirical stock of knowledge about the factors responsible for the low level of citizens' readiness to respond to natural disasters. The research results can be used as a starting point in designing a model to improve the readiness of citizens to respond to natural disasters. Keywords: security, natural disasters, barriers, response, sex, parenting, employment, disability, previous experience, military service.

Cvetković, V. (2017). Prepreke unapređenju spremnosti građana za reagovanje u prirodnim katastrofama. Vojno delo, 69(2), 132-150. 

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/308349677_Prepreke_unapredenju_spremnosti_za_reagovanje_u_prirodnim_katastrofama_-_Barriers_to_improvement_preparedness_for_responding_to_natural_disasters

KNOWLEDGE OF SECONDARY SCHOOL STUDENTS IN BELGRADE AS AN ELEMENT OF FLOOD PREPAREDNESS - ЗНАЊЕ УЧЕНИКА СРЕДЊИХ ШКОЛА У БЕОГРАДУ КАО ЕЛЕМЕНТ СПРЕМНОСТИ ЗА РЕАГОВАЊЕ НА ПОПЛАВЕ

The consequences of the floods that inundated the territory of Serbia in 2014 indicated a high level of citizen unpreparedness to respond to the situation. Starting from this fact, the basic idea of this research is to examine the level and correlation of certain factors with the students' knowledge about floods as natural disasters. The aim of the research is a scientific explanation of the correlation between students' knowledge about floods and these factors. The research consisted of a survey conducted on a sample of 3,498 respondents who make up 8.96% of the students population. The respondents were students from 19 secondary schools, out of a total of 54 at the territory of 11 affected municipalities of the city of Belgrade. The research results suggest that flood related knowledge is influenced by the students’ gender, education and employment status of parents, education acquired in school and in the family, while the knowledge of safety procedures for responding to floods is influenced by fear, gender and the educational level of parents. These results can be used in creating educational programme strategies to enhancing preparedness for response.

Key words: natural disasters, floods preparedness, secondary schools, knowledge, Belgrade.

Последице поплава које су захватиле територију Србије током 2014. године указале су на висок ниво неспремности грађана за реаговање у насталој ситуацији. Руководећи се тиме, основна идеја овог истраживања је да се испитају ниво и повезаност одређених фактора са знањем ученика о поплавама као природним катастрофама. Циљ истраживања представља научна експликација повезаности знања ученика о поплавама и споменутих фактора. Истраживање је остварено методом анкетирања, на узорку од 3498 испитаника, који чине 8,96% популације. Испитаници су ученици 19 средњих школа од укупно 54, колико их има на територији 11  угрожених општина Града Београда. Резултати истраживања указују на то да на знање о поплавама утичу пол ученика, образованост и запосленост родитеља, едукација у школи и породици, док на познавање безбедносне процедуре за реаговање приликом поплава утичу страх, пол и образованост родитеља. Наведени резултати могу се искористити приликом стварања стратегија образовних програма, што би допринело унапређењу спремности за реаговање у условима природних катастрофа изазваних поплавама.

Кључне речи: природне катастрофе, поплаве, средње школе, перцепција, знање, Београд.


Cvetković, V., Lipovac, M., & Milojković, B. (2016). Knowledge of secondary school students in Belgrade as an element of flood preparedness. Journal for social sciences, TEME, 15(4), 1259-1273. 

INFLUENCE OF EMPLOYMENT STATUS ON CITIZEN PREPAREDNESS FOR RESPONSE TO NATURAL DISASTERS

The consequences of floods that affected the area of Serbia in 2014 indicated a very low level of preparedness of population to respond to natural disasters. Therefore, the aim of quantitative research is to examine the impact of fear on the willingness of citizens to respond to a natural disaster caused by the flood in the Republic of Serbia. Bearing in mind all local communities in Serbia where floods occurred or there is a high risk of flooding, randomly it was selected sample consisting 19 of 150 municipalities and 23 towns and the city of Belgrade The survey used strategy of testing in households with the use of a multi-stage random sample. The research results show that: citizens who are employed, in a higher percentage/greater extent compared to citizens who are not: have taken certain preventive measures aimed at reducing the tangible consequences of floods, would pay funds to an account to help flood victims, would engage in providing help to flood victims in the field, heavy rains make them to think on preparedness for response and water level rise, they engaged in preparations for at least 6 months, do not do anything that would raise the level of preparedness to the next level etc. The originality of the research lies in the fact that in Serbia it has never been conducted research to examine the state of preparedness of citizens to respond. Bearing in mind that the research is based on the territory of Serbia, conclusions can be generalized to the entire population. The research results can be used when creating a strategy for improving the level of preparedness of citizens to respond. 

Key words: natural disasters, floods, citizens, employment, preparedness.

For citations: Cvetković, V. (2016). Influence of employment status on citizen preparedness for response to natural disasasters. NBP – Journal of criminalistics and law, in press. 

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN DEMOGRAPHIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS WITH KNOWLEDGE OF SECONDARY SCHOOL STUDENTS ON NATURAL DISASTERS

The subject of quantitative research is to examine the connection between demographic (gender, age) and environmental factors (family, school and media) with knowledge and perceptions of students about natural disasters. Bearing in mind the orientation of the research design on determination of character and strength of relationships of demographic and environmental factors with the knowledge and perceptions of students about natural disasters, research has explicative goal. The authors use the method of interviewing high school students to identify demographic and environmental factors associated with the knowledge and perceptions of students about natural disasters. The study included 3063 students of secondary schools in the city of Belgrade. Results suggest the existence of links between gender, success achieved in school, and education of parents with the knowledge of students about natural disasters. The results also indicate that the education of students at school and within family does not affect the knowledge, but affects their perception on natural disasters. Bearing in mind the geographical space of Serbia, the study is based only on the Belgrade region, so that the findings can be generalized only to the population of students in this area. Research findings indicate potential ways to influence students to raise level of knowledge about natural disasters to a higher level. Given the evident lack of education about natural disasters in Serbia, the study results can be used for policies of educational programs, which would contribute to improving the safety of youth culture.

In examining the connection between certain demographic and environmental factors with knowledge of students on natural disasters, we came to the following results: there is a correlation between gender of students and their knowledge on natural disasters. Results showed that female students are better informed about natural disasters. On the other hand, we found that gender has no influence on the perception and familiarity with safety procedures for responding to natural disasters. Therefore, special attention to raising awareness should be directed towards male students; results showed no relationship between  age of  students and their knowledge, perceptions and familiarity with safety procedures for responding to natural disasters. Education about natural disasters should include students of all ages, without special attention to particular categories of age. Results indicate that education of parents is related to knowledge, perception and familiarity with safety procedures for responding to natural disasters. Especially noteworthy is equal correlation of education of father and mother with the above dependent variables. Significantly it is to conduct additional research to more clearly examine the association of education level of parents and students' knowledge on natural disasters. Bearing in mind the importance of education about natural disasters at school and within family, we wanted to examine what kind of education is more effective and produces better results. Regardless of our desire and the expected differences, we get similar results, indicating that education in school and family only affects the perception on natural disasters. The question remains, whether the results are consequences of the lack of participation of schools and families in development of security culture of young people. Furthermore, the results indicate that achieved success in school is associated with knowledge and familiarity with safety procedures for responding to natural disasters. The excellent students are more informed and known better the procedures for reacting in such situations. Whether it is a result of their attitude towards personal development and desire to know better the world around them, or it is something completely different, it remains to researchers to investigate. Starting from the fact that education in school and family about natural disasters only affects the perception, we wanted to examine whether the media influence the knowledge on natural disasters. The results showed that television and the Internet influence students' knowledge on natural disasters. Therefore, this argument should be used in a better conception of the role of television and the Internet to disseminate knowledge about natural disasters.

    Since 1997 until 1993, in our educational system there was the subject Defense and protection in within which students, among other things, acquired this kind of knowledge. Today, again occurs initiative of introducing the subject with similar topics. However, it is necessary to do a detailed analysis of the curricula for primary and secondary school and determine to what extent these educational activities are incorporated into the curriculum. On that basis, it is necessary to conclude whether it is only necessary to revise existing curricula in order to amend the contents of natural disasters or it is needed to introduce a new subject. Surely, it obliges us to continue to conduct research on this topic and find strategies of affecting the students in order to raise the level of their preparedness to respond to natural disasters. If we talk about the functionality of knowledge and knowledge that will be of benefit to students, then the curricula must include contents related to emergency response, as well as knowledge related to familiarity with first aid, health care and safety in the household. These are the topics that will be the focus of our future researches.

Key words: natural disasters, high schools, knowledge, perception, demographic factors, environmental factors.

For citation: Cvetković, V., & Stanišić, J. (2015). Relationship between demographic and environmental factors with knowledge of secondary school students on natural disasters., SASA, . Journal of the Geographical Institute Jovan Cvijic, 65(3). 

СПРЕМНОСТ ГРАЂАНА ЗА РЕАГОВАЊЕ НА ПРИРОДНУ КАТАСТРОФУ ИЗАЗВАНУ ПОПЛАВОМ У РЕПУБЛИЦИ СРБИЈИ

 
    Последице пoплaвa кoje су зaдeсилe пoдручje Србиje у тoку 2014. гoдинe укaзaлe су нa вeoмa низaк стeпeн спрeмнoсти стaнoвништвa зa рeaгoвaњe у прирoдним кaтaстрoфaмa. Имајући у виду неиспитаност нивоа и фактора утицаја на спремност за реаговање, спрoвeдeнo je мултиметодско истраживање које је обухватило квантитативан и квалитативан истраживачки приступ са циљем утврђивања нивoa и утицaja одређених демографских, социо-економских и психолошких карактеристика грађана нa њихову спремност за рeaгoвaњe. Имајући у виду све локалне заједнице у Србији у којима се догодила или постоји висок ризик да се догоди поплава, методом случајног узорка одабрано је њих 19 од укупно 150 општина и 23 града и града Београда. У одабраним ло-калним заједницама истраживање се обавило у оним деловима који су били најугроженији у одно-су на висину воде или потенцијални ризик од настанка поплаве. У самом анкетном испитивању била је примењена стратегија испитивања у домаћинствима уз примену вишеетапног случајног узорка.

 Судећи по резултатима истраживања грађани Републике Србије у извесној мери су неспремни за реаговање на природну катастрофу изазвану поплавом, и њихов јавни индекс спремности за реаговање износи 10,5 од укупно могућих 33. Од укупног броја испитаника, њих 77,4% доживело је нематеријалне и 67,3% материјалне последице поплаве; 34% је било спречено да буде у дому услед последица поплава; 49,7% осећа док 49,3% не осећа страх од поплава; 23,3% би као волонтер учествовало у отклањању последица поплава; 26,6% истиче да је индивидуално спремно за реаговање (М=2,98); 28,7% истиче да је њихово домаћинство спремно за реаговање (М=2,98); 77,9% истиче да зна шта је поплава; 22% познаје безбедносне процедуре реаговања; 86,7% евакуисало би се у случају наиласка поплавног таласа; 40,2% истиче да их је у породици неко едуковао о поплавама; 26,6% истиче да зна шта треба радити након званичног упозорења о наиласку поплавног таласа; 24,6% истиче да поседује залихе; 37,2% одговорило је да поседују залихе хране за 4 дана; 26% поседују залихе воде за 4 дана; 17,6% испитаника поседује радио транзистор, 40% батеријску лампу; 1,3% испитаника поседује писани план за реаговање; 24,5% поседује копије финансијских и других осигуравајућих докумената на безбедном месту итд. Када је реч o демографским карактеристикама грађана, као што су пол, године старости, ниво образовања, и успех у школи утврђена је статистички значајна повезаност са перцепцијом, знањем и поседовањем залиха у вези спремности за реаговањем, док са променљивом да ли испитаници имају или немају деце није утврђена статистички значајна повезаност са перцепцијом спремности за реаговање; у вези социо-економских карактеристика грађана, за запосленост, висину прихода, статус регулисане војне обавезе, и удаљености домаћинства од реке утврђена је статистички значајна повезаност са перцепцијом, знањем и поседовањем залиха у вези спремности за реаговањем; и на крају, за психолошке карактеристике грађана - страх, претходно искуство, перцепцију ризика, ниво религиозности и мотивисаност, утврђена је статистички значајна повезаност са перцепцијом, знањем и залихама у вези спремности грађана за реаговањем.

 Oргинaлнoст истрaживaњa oглeдa сe у чињeници дa у Србиjи ниje никaдa спрoвeдeнo истрaживaњe кojим би сe испитaлo стaњe спрeмнoсти грaђaнa зa рeaгoвaњe. Имајући у виду да се истрaживaњe бaзирa нa пoдручje Србиje, зaкључци се мoгу гeнeрaлизoвaти нa цeлoкупну пoпулaциjу становништва. Истрaживaњe укaзуje нa кojи нaчин трeбa утицaти нa грaђaнe с oбзирoм нa њихoве демографске, социо-економске и психолошке карактеристике кaкo би сe спрeмнoст за реаговање на природне катастрофе изазване поплавом пoдиглa нa виши нивo. Као такво, не даје потпун одговор на сва актуелна питања о спремности грађана за реаговање, али свакако може допринети стварању потпуније слике о њој. Иако су учињени огромни напори да се свеобухватним приступом расветли већина недоумица, може се рећи да велики број питања остаје да се и даље истражује. Резултати истраживања могу допринети унапређењу спремности грађана за реаговање на такве појаве. Поред тога, резултати истраживања се мoгу искoристити и приликoм крeирaњa стрaтeгиja зa унaпрeђeњe нивoa спрeмнoсти грaђaнa зa рeaгoвaњe. Као такви, представљаће реперну тачку за сва будућа истраживања о спремности грађана за реаговање на природне катастрофе имајући у виду праву ризницу података који су изнети у докторској дисертацији.

Кључне речи: безбедност, природнa катастрофa, поплава, спремност за реаговање, перцепција, знање, залихе, демографске карактеристике, социо-економске карактеристике, психолошке карактеристике, грађани, Србија.

За цитирање користити: Цветковић, В. (2015). Спремност грађана за реаговање на природну катастрофу изазвану поплавом у Републици Србији. Београд: Универзитет у Београду, Факултет безбедности.

CITIZENS PREPAREDNESS FOR RESPONDING TO NATURAL DISASTER

CAUSED BY FLOOD IN SERBIA

The consequences of floods that affected the area of Serbia in 2014 indicated a very low level of preparedness of population to respond to natural disasters. Bearing in mind unstudied levels and factors influencing preparedness to respond it was conducted multi-methodical study that included quantitative and qualitative research approach aimed at determining the level and impact of certain demographic, socio-economic and psychological characteristics of population on their preparedness to respond. Bearing in mind all local communities in Serbia where floods occurred or there is a high risk of flooding, randomly it was selected sample consisting 19 of 150 municipalities and 23 towns and the city of Belgrade. In selected communities research was undertaken in those areas that were most affected in relation to the amount of water or potential risk of flooding. The survey used strategy of testing in households with the use of a multi-stage random sample.

According to the research results: citizens of the Republic of Serbia are to some degree unprepared for responding to natural disasters caused by floods, and their public preparedness index was 10.5 on a scale to 33; 77.4% of them suffered from intangible consequences and 67, 3% of them suffered from tangible consequences caused by flooding; 34% of them were disabled to be at home due to consequences of floods; 49.7% feel while 49.3% do not feel the fear from floods; 23.3% would participate as a volunteer in eliminating the consequences of flooding; 26.6% declare that they are individually are prepared to respond (M=2.98); 28.7% declare that their households are prepared to respond (M=2.98); 77.9% declare they know what a flood is; 22% are familiar with security response procedures; 86.7% would be evacuated in the event of encountering floods; 40.2% declare that they have been educated about floods by someone within family; 26.6% declare they know what to do after an official warning about approaching flood; 24.6% declare they have supplies; 37.2% responded that they have food supplies for 4 days; 26% have a water supplies for 4 days; 17.6% of respondents have a transistor radio, 40% flashlight; 1.3% of respondents have a written plan for responding; 24.5% have copies of financial and other insurance documents in a safe place, etc.

When it comes to demographic characteristics of citizens, such as gender, age, level of education, and school performance there is statistically significant correlation with perception, knowledge and possession of supplies in terms of preparedness for response, while when it comes to variable on whether respondents have or do not have children there is no statistically significant correlation with perception of preparedness to respond; in relation with socio-economic characteristics of citizens, for employment, income, status of military obligations, and distance of household from a river there is a statistically significant correlation with perception, knowledge and possession of supplies in terms of preparedness to respond; and finally, for psychological characteristics of people - fear, previous experience, perception of risk, level of religiosity and motivation, these is a statistically significant correlation with perception, knowledge and supplies in terms of preparedness of citizens to respond.

The originality of the research lies in the fact that in Serbia it has never been conducted research to examine the state of preparedness of citizens to respond. Bearing in mind that the research is based on the territory of Serbia, conclusions can be generalized to the entire population. Research indicates the way how to affect the citizens with respect to their demographic, socio-economic and psychological characteristics to raise preparedness on a higher level. As such, it does not give a complete answer to all current issues on preparedness of citizens to respond, but it certainly can contribute in creating a more complete picture of it. Although they made huge efforts to shed light on most concerns in comprehensive approach, we can say that a large number of questions remain to be further investigated. The research results can contribute to improving citizens' preparedness to respond to such events. The research results can be used when creating a strategy for improving the level of preparedness of citizens to respond. As such, they represent guidelines for all future research on preparedness for response, bearing in mind the true wealth of information set out in his doctoral dissertation.

Key words: security, natural disasters, floods, preparedness for response, perception, knowledge, supplies, demographic characteristics, socio-economic characteristics, psychological characteristics, citizens, Serbia.

ZNANJE I PERCEPCIJA UČENIKA SREDNJE ŠKOLE U KRALJEVU O PRIRODNIM KATASTROFAMA

Kvantitativno istraživanje je sprovedeno sa ciljem utvrđivanja percepcije i stvarnog znanja učenika srednje elektrotehničke škole u Kraljevu ,,Nikola Tesla” o prirodnim katastrofama. Tom prilikom je korišćen metod anketiranja učenika kako bi se identifikovali i opisali faktori koji imaju uticaja na znanje i percepciju učenika. Iz populacije srednje elektrotehničke škole u Kraljevu, na slučajan način, iz svake godine izabran je po određen broj ispitanika. Rezultati istraživanja pokazuju da izvori informacija o prirodnim katastrofama i njihovim ugrožavajućim posledicama utiču na percepciju učenika srednje škole. Istovremeno, na stvarno znanje o prirodnim katastrofama utiču predavanja, škola, televizija i internet, dok znatno manje utiču video-igre, radio i priče od članova porodice. Ispitanici bez ličnog iskustva u vezi sa ugrožavajućim posledicama prirodnih katastrofa u statistički većem procentu ne znaju da prepoznaju određene prirodne katastrofe. Iskustvo članova uže porodice ne utiče u velikoj meri na znanje o prirodnim katastrofama, sa izuzetkom oca. Imajući u vidu evidentan nedostatak obrazovanja o prirodnim katastrofama u Srbiji, rezultati istraživanja se mogu iskoristiti prilikom kreiranja strategija obrazovnih programa.

Za citiranje koristiti: Cvetković, V., & Stojković, D. (2015). Knowledge and perceptions of secondary school students in Kraljevo about natural disasters. Ecologica, 22(77), 42-49. 

KNOWLEDGE AND PERCEPTIONS OF STUDENTS OF THE ACADEMY OF CRIMINALISTIC AND POLICE STUDIES ABOUT NATURAL DISASTERS

Experience has shown that access to high-quality educational programs about natural disasters is of crucial importance in protecting children and their families. It was also noted that instead of considering children and women as the most vulnerable categories (victims), they can be recognized as contributors to the recovery of community assuming that they have acquired a solid knowledge on natural disasters and elimination of their consequences. Education about risk of natural disasters can be represented through special programs or through the implementation into basic curriculum. Furthermore, such education can be realized through curricular and extra-curricular activities (such as, for example, various workshops, games, etc.). Although the education of young people for the protection of life, health and the environment has its roots in the family and pre-school education, the school is irreplaceable in achieving this goal. The school is obliged to develop the knowledge, awareness and habits that prevent dangers, in fact, in its basic function it has the task to enable human, on the one hand, to rule over nature, and on the other, protection against hazards that may befall them and against his human ,, nature“  itself. It is important to have awareness that we ,, cannot escape" from danger, they can only be prevented ,that is, consequences can be prevented  by knowledge, awareness and education to automatism of habits. In addition, education for active and passive protection of self and others, physical integrity or natural properties and the environment, while creating habits and feelings of responsibility, truthfulness, humanity, justice, modesty is subject of educational influence of school education. The main findings are: respondents showed a high level of knowledge about natural disasters, however, the level is the highest in natural disasters that are present in our region; the best knowledge on safety procedures is in relation to droughts, because 98.6% of respondents indicate appropriate treatment. The lowest level of knowledge of safety procedures is registered in extreme temperatures and amounts 52.5%; of the total, 86.9% of respondents said that they had someone at school who talked about natural disasters, as opposed to 13.1% who responded negatively, 79.2% of respondents were introduced with some of the natural disaster by a family member, while 20.8% were not; 60.6% of respondents feel protected, 32.2.% are not sure and 6.9% do not feel protected in the facilities of the Academy when it comes to natural disasters; 26.4% feel the fear of natural disasters, 20.3% are not sure and 53.3% do not feel fear; 83.9% of respondents would like to undergo training, 8.9% are not sure and 7.2% do not want; the largest number of respondents gained information about natural disasters through television 92.8%, and the smallest number  through video-games 5.8%. The results indicate that there is a statistically significant correlation between: the father's education (p = 0,03≤0,05, phi = 0.30 - medium); mother's education (p = 0,04≤0,05, phi = 0.10 - small); employment of parents (p = 0,05≤0,05, phi = 0.30 - medium) and knowledge about natural disasters. Also, there is a statistically significant relationship between television and the perception of knowledge about natural disasters (p = 0,05≤0,05, phi = 0.21 - medium);

Za citiranje koristiti: Cvetković, V., Ivanov, A., & Sadiyeh, A. (2015). Knowledge and perceptions of students of the Academy of  criminalistic and police studies about natural disasters. Paper presented at the International scientific conference Archibald Reiss days, Belgrade.

THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGES ON THE RISK OF NATURAL DISASTERS

In recent years, serious decisions are made at the local and international level on climate change and its impact on natural disasters, which are more numerous and more serious over the years. Exploring their mutual influences, scientists worldwide are mostly engaged in the issue of the link between the increase in average temperature of the earth and the frequency (intensity) of natural disasters, with a special emphasis on hydrologic and meteorological disasters. To be able to analyze such influence, it is needed a solid knowledge of climate changes and natural disasters, as it is well known that global warming does not affect equally all kinds of those disasters, taking into account the origin of their occurrence. However, it should be noted that natural disasters have always existed, and that climate changes can only affect the increase in their number, intensity and consequences that they cause to people and their material goods.

             Without going into multiply multidimensional various issues of climate change, it should be noted that climate changes are caused by emissions of different gases that directly or indirectly exacerbate the natural process by which infrared radiation is captured in the atmosphere, which causes heating the lithosphere, hydrosphere and atmosphere. It is a fact that speaks of the temperature increase of land, sea and air causes the disorder of certain natural processes, thereby contributing to the creation of more frequent floods, hurricanes, landslides and so on. Therefore, global warming that is characterized by increasing average temperatures on earth can be direct/indirect cause of the increase in severity (number and intensity) of natural disasters. In order to examine this possibility, it is important to examine the effects of elevated temperatures of land, sea and air on the processes that contribute to the above-mentioned increase in severity of natural disasters. Besides the increase in the average temperature of the lithosphere, hydrosphere and atmosphere, which are direct consequences of climate changes, it is important to analyze its indirect effects as well, such as increasing the level of the oceans and seas affected by the rapid melting of large glaciers in Antarctica and Greenland. The aforementioned process also affects the natural disasters, but in different ways than the direct effects of climate change.

      A large number of research studies worldwide have identified and demonstrated the interconnectedness of global warming and natural disasters using different statistical models. For example, if we start from the fact that the strength of hurricanes is based on heat of the oceans and seas, which is later transformed in mechanical strength, it is easy to examine the relationship between changes in ocean temperature and hurricane strength over the past few years. Of course, it is necessary to bear in mind that the characteristics of a hurricane do not only depend on the water temperature, but also on other factors that we will not consider in the paper.

            Therefore, this paper will analyze the phenomenological structure of climate changes and natural disasters, for further consideration of the relevant facts about their interrelation. Namely, in order to link those two phenomena it should consider each separately. Therefore, the paper will consider the implications of climate changes on natural disasters with special reference to their impact on specific species, the intensity and the increase in their number.

The climate changes

Across the Earth, climate changes and its serious consequences are discussed on a daily basis. And what exactly are climate changes and what they represent, it is best explained by the process of warming the Earth. Namely, daily solar energy penetrates the atmosphere in the form of light waves. Part of this energy heats the Earth, and part in the form of infrared waves back into space. Normally, part of the infrared radiation usually is captured by the atmosphere allowing the temperature that stays on Earth is within acceptable limits. However, the problem we now face is that the thin layer of air layer became thicker due to the large amounts of carbon dioxide and other gases that cause the greenhouse effect. Having become thicker, now that layer retains a large amount of infrared radiation that would otherwise have left the atmosphere, causing the temperature of the Earth's atmosphere and oceans begin to rise.According to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency – EPA, climate changes are a significant changes in climatic conditions, such as temperature, precipitation or winds, which last for a decade or longer, and may result from: natural processes within the climate system (changes in ocean circulation), changes in the intensity of solar radiation, or human activities that affect the composition of the atmosphere (through the burning of fossil fuels) and the land surface (deforestation, urbanization, desertification).[1] In addition, unlike climate changes, term the „global warming“ represents the tropospheric temperature increase thus contributing to changes in global weather patterns that emerge due to increased emissions of so-called greenhouse gases, mainly carbon dioxide and methane.[2

Climate changes represent a serious threat to the basic elements of life for people in the world, such as access to drinking water, food production, food and land use. They are multiple (from drought to floods) and multidimensional (local to global) risks that have short, medium and long-term aspects and unknown outcomes. The signatories to the UN Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol 1997 have accepted that climate changes carry many potential hazards, such as sea level rise, increased frequency of storms and floods, the spread of infectious diseases, decline in biodiversity and reducing the availability of food and water. These impacts are a threat to human life and sustainable development.

Za citiranje koristiti: Cvetković, V. (2014). The impacts of climate changes on the risk of natural disasters. Skopje: International yearbook of the Faculty of security (51-60).

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[1] Dimitrijević, D.: Trendovi ekološke bezbednosti u XXI veku. Univerzitet u Beogradu: Fakultet bezbednosti, 2010. godine.

[2] Environmental Protection Agency, U.S. Enviromental Protection Agency: Nanotechnology White Paper, Washington, 2007.

SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION OF GEOPHYSICAL DISASTERS

Analyzing phenomenology, ie. forms of manifestations, consequences, temporal and spatial distribution of geophysical disasters (earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and mass movement dry) around the world, in the period from 1900 to 2013, we have come to the following conclusions: In relation to the total number of natural disasters in the period, which amounted to 25.552, geophysical disasters are in the third place according to its frequency - 11.89%. In the first place are hydrological disasters - 37.40%, and the last are

biological ones - 11.04%. In relation to the total number of people killed in natural disasters, which is

65.009.766, geophysical disasters are in the fourth place - 20.8%. In the first are climatological- 36.57%, biological - 29.46%, hydrological- 21.52% and in the last place are meteorological ones - 4.26%.

In relation to the total number of people injured in natural disasters which is 15.221.227, geophysical disasters are in the first place - 34.01%. The second are climatological- 24.83% then hydrological- 17.44%, meteorological- 17.35% and biological ones - 17:44%. International Conference “Natural Hazards – Links between Science and Practice”  In relation to the total number of people who were made homeless in natural

disasters, which is 337.112.287, geophysical disasters are in third place-13.62%. In the first place are hydrological disasters - 54.94%, meteorological - 31.16%, climatological - 0.27% and, in the end, biological ones 0%. In the period, there occurred 3.037 geophysical disasters, 2.475 of which were earthquakes, 452 volcanic eruptions and 110 mass movements dry. In percentage terms, earthquakes have occurred in 81.49% of cases, volcanic eruptions in 14.88%, and mass movement dry in 3.62%. In geophysical disasters 5.331.007 people have been killed, 5.128.349 of which in earthquakes, 192.624 in volcanic eruptions and 10.034 in the mass movement dry. In geophysical disasters 5.177.147 people have been injured, 5.152.887 of which in earthquakes, 23.238 in volcanic eruptions and 1.022 in mass movements dry; In the period, characteristics of earthquakes were as follows: in Asia it was the largest number: China has experienced the largest number of earthquakes with the largest number of people killed and injured; most earthquakes happened in 1901; in 1976 the earthquakes caused the greatest number of people killed; in 2008 the earthquakes injured most people. In terms of the number and characteristics of consequences of volcanic

eruptions, the following is concluded: most volcanic eruptions were in Asia- Indonesia has experienced the largest number of volcanic eruptions; Martinique had the largest number of people killed, and Colombia the largest number of people injured; most volcanic eruptions occurred in 2006; the most people were killed in 1902; the most people injured in 1985. In terms of the number and characteristics of consequences of mass movement dry, it is clear that they were mostly in Asia; by countries- Canada has experienced the largest number of mass movement dry, in Peru the most people were killed, while there was the largest number of people injured in China. On an annual basis, the total number of earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and mass movements dry until 1970 was average, with some degree of deviation from the annual average of the total observed period, but after that, a serious increase in their number and effects has been observed.

Za citiranje ovog rada koristite: Cvetković, V., & Mijalković, S. (2013). Spatial and temporal distribution of geophysical disasters. International conference natural hazards - links between science and practice (pp. 359). Belgrade: Serbian Academy of Sciences and Arts and Geographical Institute Jovan Cvijic, Journal of the Geographical Institute “Jovan Cvijić.